Top 30 House Races — Where Incumbent Party Could Change

The Senate may turn.  The House, probably not.  If anything, Republicans are expected to expand on their current 234-201 advantage (including vacancies).

But with great fluctuation in many of the races, there is no shortage of seats that may change parties on Tuesday.

vulnerable House incumbents 001
Vulnerable incumbents: Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), Lee Terry (R-Neb.), Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), Steve Southerland (R-Fla.).

Here are our Top 30 House seats most likely to fall to the other party on Nov. 4th.  We’re not saying they will.  But these are the most likely.

(Republicans listed first; incumbents in CAPS)

ARIZONA 01 — Andy Tobin vs. ANN KIRKPATRICK

ARIZONA 02 — Martha McSally vs. RON BARBER

ARKANSAS 02 (open: Tim Griffin (R) running for lt. gov) — French Hill vs. Patrick Hays

ARKANSAS 04 (open:  Tom Cotton (R) running for Senate) — Bruce Westerman vs. James Lee Witt

CALIFORNIA 07 — Doug Ose vs. AMI BERA

CALIFORNIA 26 — Jeff Gorell vs. JULIA BROWNLEY

CALIFORNIA 31 (open; Gary Miller (R) retiring) — Paul Chabot vs. Pete Aguilar

CALIFORNIA 36 — Brian Nestande vs. RAUL RUIZ

CALIFORNIA 52 — Carl DeMaio vs. SCOTT PETERS

COLORADO 06 — MIKE COFFMAN vs. Andrew Romanoff

FLORIDA 02 — STEVE SOUTHERLAND vs. Gwen Graham

FLORIDA 26 — Carlos Curbelo vs. JOE GARCIA

GEORGIA 12 — Rick Allen vs. JOHN BARROW

HAWAII 01 (open: Colleen Hanabusa (D) lost Senate primary) — Charles Djou vs. Mark Takai

ILLINOIS 10 — Bob Dold vs. BRAD SCHNEIDER

ILLINOIS 12 — Mike Bost vs. BILL ENYART

IOWA 01 (open: Bruce Braley (D) running for Senate) — Rod Blum vs. Pat Murphy

IOWA 02Mariannette Miller-Meeks vs. DAVE LOEBSACK

MINNESOTA 07 — Torrey Westrom vs. COLLIN PETERSON

MINNESOTA 08 — Stewart Mills vs. RICK NOLAN

NEBRASKA 02 — LEE TERRY vs. Brad Ashford

NEW HAMPSHIRE 01 — Frank Guinta vs. CAROL SHEA-PORTER

NEW YORK 01 — Lee Zeldin vs. TIM BISHOP

NEW YORK 11 — MICHAEL GRIMM vs. Domenic Recchia

NEW YORK 18 — Nan Hayworth vs. SEAN MALONEY

NEW YORK 21 (open: Bill Owens (D) retiring) — Elise Stefanik vs. Aaron Woolf

NORTH CAROLINA 07 (open: Mike McIntyre (D) retiring) — David Rouzer vs. Jonathan Barfield

TEXAS 23 — Will Hurd vs. PETE GALLEJO

UTAH 04 (open: Jim Matheson (D) retiring) — Mia Love vs. Doug Owens

WEST VIRGINIA 03 — Evan Jenkins vs. NICK RAHALL

Honorable mention:  AZ 09,  CA 21, IL 17,  IA 03, KS 02, KS 03, ME 02, MA 06, MI 11, NV 04, NJ 03, NY 19, NY 24, PA 06, VA 10, WV 02.

 

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