Analysis by Mike Rudin
UPCOMING PRIMARIES
I know what you’re thinking — how did he get that sweet gig writing for The Political Junkie?! It wasn’t easy. First, I had to be a bona fide political junkie, which I am. And second, I had to grow up with Ken, which I did. If you have any problems with that, go complain to Luke Russert or Chris Cuomo. Or, better yet, Brendan Carr. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way …
With a little less than four months until the midterm elections, there are still Senate primaries to watch that could determine which party winds up with a majority. Between now and Sept. 15, primary voters in these 12 states will be choosing Senate nominees:
August 4: Virginia, Michigan, Kansas
August 6: Tennessee
August 11: Minnesota
August 18: Alaska, Florida, Wyoming
September 1: Massachusetts
September 8: New Hampshire
September 9: Rhode Island
September 15: Delaware
Of the 12 upcoming Senate primaries, the one that stands out the most is in Michigan on Aug. 4th. Circle this one in red Sharpie. Not too dissimilar to what we saw in Maine, New York and Colorado primaries, there is, for the Democrats, a genuinely nasty intra-party scrum that has real electability consequences. It pits Rep. Haley 
Stevens, the choice of the establishment (read: Chuck Schumer), vs. Abdul El-Sayed, a strong critic of Israel and backer of Palestinians who is the choice of the “democratic socialists” (for lack of a better description — read: Bernie Sanders/Zohran Mamdani). A third candidate, Mallory McMorrow, deciding she couldn’t make a difference, bowed out. Both sides argue that nominating the wrong candidate will hand the GOP a seat they haven’t won in Michigan since 1994. A Detroit News poll released 7/14 showed Stevens ahead, 48.2-41.4%; earlier polls had El-Sayed up. Republicans have rallied behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who came within a whisker of defeating Elissa Slotkin (D) in the 2024 Senate contest as Trump was carrying the state by a point.
Another interesting primary occurs on Sept. 1st in Massachusetts. Sen. Ed Markey (D), who is 80, is being challenged by Rep. Seth Moulton, 47. Moulton is basically running on the same issue as then-Rep. Joe Kennedy III did when he (unsuccessfully) challenged Markey in the 2020 primary: age. Or, to put it more delicately, it’s time for new leadership. Markey holds narrow if steady leads in every poll. Regardless of who wins the primary, Democratic control is not thought to be at risk.
The last Republican to win a Senate seat in Mass. was Scott Brown, who captured Ted Kennedy’s seat in a special 2010 election but lost it 2-1/2 years later to Elizabeth Warren. Since then, he moved to New Hampshire, challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in 2014, and narrowly lost. With Shaheen retiring, he’s running again this year, but faces tough odds in the 9/8 GOP primary from John E. Sununu, who was elected to the Senate in 2002 but lost his seat to then-Gov. Shaheen in 2008. While the Sununu name still carries weight in N.H. — his brother Chris and father John both served as governor — most polls say Democrats should retain the seat, but Sununu (assuming he wins the GOP primary) can’t be counted out. The frontrunner for the Democratic nomination appears to be Rep. Chris Pappas, who faces progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. The Republicans’ dream candidate was Chris Sununu, who left the governorship with high approval ratings, but he didn’t want to serve in the Senate.
Alaska is especially interesting because it holds ranked-choice contests, where the top four candidates, regardless of party, advance to November. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is seeking re-election. The leading Democrat is former Rep. Mary Peltola, who lost her seat in 2024 by just three points in a state Trump won by 11. The primary is less of note than what happens in the general election. Democrats insist this race belongs on the watch list, and several polls have shown Peltola with a slight lead over Sullivan. But a New York Times poll out this month had Sullivan up by two percentage points. Definitely one to watch, and one Democrats must win if they are to take the Senate.
Other Senate primaries:
Virginia (Aug. 4): Sen. Mark Warner (D) seeking re-election.
Kansas (Aug. 4): Sen. Roger Marshall (R) seeking re-election.
Tennessee (Aug. 6): Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) seeking re-election.
Minnesota (Aug. 11): Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Democrats are experiencing an ideological battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and the more moderate Rep. Angie Craig. The Republican frontrunner appears to be Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter. Her closest competition in the primary is Adam Schwarze, a former Navy SEAL.
Florida (Aug. 18); Ashley Moody, the state attorney general, was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Ron DeSantis following Marco Rubio leaving to become secretary of state. Democrats will choose between leading candidates Alex Vindman, the whistleblower in the Trump-Ukraine scandal that led to the president’s first impeachment, and Angie Nixon, a state rep.
Wyoming (Aug. 18): Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) is retiring. Rep. Harriet Hageman, who knocked off Rep. Liz Cheney in 2022, is the clear GOP frontrunner.
Rhode Island (Sept. 9): Sen. Jack Reed (D) seeking re-election. Delaware (Sept. 15): Sen. Chris Coons (D) seeking re-election.
Thoughts? Questions? Complaints? Want to know family secrets? Write to me at mike@krpoliticaljunkie.com.